ÊÀ½çÈ˶¡½«À´Õ°Íû£º·Ö»¯Ç÷Ïò¡¢·ÖÆç·¢Õ¹õè¾¶Óë½áºÏ¹úµÄ×÷ÓÃ

2025.10.20

Ͷ¸å£ºÄªÏþÑಿÃÅ£ºÉç»áѧԺä¯ÀÀ´ÎÊý£º

»î¶¯ÐÅÏ¢

½²×ùÖ÷Ì⣺

The Future of World Population: Divergent Trends, Competing Narratives, and the Role of the United Nations

ÊÀ½çÈ˶¡½«À´Õ°Íû£º·Ö»¯Ç÷Ïò¡¢·ÖÆç·¢Õ¹õè¾¶Óë½áºÏ¹úµÄ×÷ÓÃ


½²×ù¹¦·ò£º2025Äê10ÔÂ27ÈÕÉÏÎç10:30-12:00

½²×ùµØÖ·£ºCA88±¦É½Ð£ÇøÖ÷Çø±±ÃÅÄÚÀÖºõÐÂ¥ѧº£Ìü

Ö÷½²ÈË£º½áºÏ¹úÈ˶¡Ë¾Ë¾³¤John Wilmoth

Ó×ÎÒ¼ò½é£º

John WilmothÏÈÉúÓÚ2013Äê1ÔÂ2ÈÕ¾ÍÈνáºÏ¹úÈ˶¡Ë¾Ë¾³¤¡£ËûÔøµ£ÈμÓÖÝ´óѧ²®¿ËÀû·ÖУÈ˶¡Ñ§Ïµ½ÌÊÚ¡¢½áºÏ¹úÈ˶¡Ë¾éæÃüÂÊ·ÖÎö´¦´¦³¤¡£Ëû׫д»òºÏÖøÁË50ÓàÆª¿ÆÑ§ÂÛÎÄ £¬×êÑÐÉæ¼°È˶¡¶¯Ì¬ÓëÈ˶¡ÎÊÌâµÄ¶à¸öά¶È £¬Ô̺¬£ºÈËÀàéæÃüÂʺ¹ÇàÐÔ½µÂäµÄ³ÉÒò¡¢½«À´Ô¤ÆÚÊÙÃüÇ÷ÏòÕ°Íû¡¢È˶¡ÀÏÁ仯¶Ô¹«¹²ÑøÀϽð¼°Ò½ÁÆÏµÍ³µÄÓ°Ïì¡¢¹«¼Ò¶ÔÈ˶¡Ôö³¤¼°Æäºó¹ûµÄÈÏÖª £¬ÒÔ¼°È˶¡Ç÷ÏòÆÀ¹ÀÓëÔ¤²â²½ÖèÂÛ¡£Ëû×÷ΪÊÀ½çÎÀÉú×éÖ¯ºÍÊÀ½çÒøÐеÄÕ÷ѯר¼Ò £¬Ö÷µ¼ÁËÈ«ÇòÔвú¸¾éæÃüÂÊÐÂÆÀ¹ÀϵͳµÄ¿ª·¢¹¤×÷¡£ËûÊÇÃÀ¹úÈ˶¡Ñ§»áºÍ¹ú¼ÊÈ˶¡¿ÆÑ§×êÑÐͬÃ˳ÉÔ± £¬Í¬Ê±µ£ÈΡ¶Demographic Research¡·¡¶European Journal of Population¡·µÈ¹ú¼Ê¶¥¼¶ÆÚ¿¯µÄ±àί¡£

½²×ùÄÚÈÝ£º

Ö»¹Üµ±½ñÈ«ÇòÈ˶¡Ç÷Ïò³öÏÖ³öÏÔÖøµÄ¶àÑùÐÔ £¬µ«Æä±³ºóÊܵ½Ò»¸ö¹²Í¬µÄ¸ù»ù¹ý³ÌÇý¶¯£º¼´ÈËÀàÏò¸ü³¤ÃüÃüºÍ¸üÓ×¼ÒÍ¥¹æÄ£×ª±äµÄÈ˶¡×ªÐÍ¡£µ±Ç°Ç÷ÏòµÄ·Ö»¯ÖØÒªÔ´ÓÚÁйúÈ˶¡×ªÐÍʱµãµÄ²î¾à £¬²¢ÒòתÐͺó¹ú¼ÊǨáãˮƽ¡¢ÉúÓýÂÊÇ÷ÏòµÄ²î¾à¶ø½øÒ»²½¸´ÔÓ»¯¡£

Ëæ×ÅÔ½À´Ô½¶à¹ú¶ÈʵÏÖÈ˶¡×ªÐÍ £¬½ü¼¸Ê®ÄêÀ´È«ÇòÈ˶¡ÒéÌâµÄ»áÉ̽¹µãÒÑ´Ó¶ÔÈ˶¡ÊýÁ¿Ôö³¤µÄÓÇÓô £¬×ªÏò¶Ô´ºÇï½á¹¹ÉÏÒÆµÄ¹Ø×¢ £¬²¢ÔÚ¸ü¼«¶ËÇé¿öϲû·¢Îª¶ÔÈ˶¡Ë¥Í˵ݧ³î¡£ÔÚ·ÖÆçµÄÈË¿ÚÓᄈϠ£¬¸÷ÀàÎ £»úÐðÊÂÃèÊö³öÖî¶à¾ö¶¨ÂÛʽµÄÈ˶¡¿àÄѳ¡¾° £¬½«È˶¡±ä¶¯¿ò¶¨Îª¿àÄѵÄΨһ»òÖØÒªÔ­Òò £¬²¢Ðû³ÆÖ»ÓÐÐýת¡°²»Á¼¡±È˶¡Ç÷ÏòÄÜÁ¦Ô¤·À¿àÄÑ¡£

ÕâÖÖ¶ÔÈ˶¡ÎÊÌâµÄ¼ò»¯½â¶Á £¬ÍùÍùºöÊÓÁËÍÆ¶¯È˶¡×ªÐ͹ý³ÌÖÐÈËÀรìíµÄÄÚÈÝÌáÉý £¬Ò²·ñ¶¨Á˼ÈÍùÈ˶¡±ä¶¯µÄ²»³ÉÄæ×ªÐÔ¼°½«À´ÊýÊ®Äê½øÒ»²½±ä¶¯µÄ±ØÈ»ÐÔ £¬´Ó¶ø·ÖÉ¢ÁËÈËÃǶÔÉç»áÓë¾­¼Ã×éÖ¯±ØÒªÊÊÓ¦ÐÔ¶¦ÐÂÈ·°ÑÎÈÁ¦¡£Î £»úÐðÊÂÔÚ·ÖÆç²¼¾°Ï±»ÓÃ×÷ÂÛÖ¤¹ú¶È¹ýÎÊÉúÖ³×ÔÖ÷ȨµÄÀíÓÉ £¬ÊµÔòÏÞ¶ÈÁËÓ×ÎÒÔÚÉúÓýÊÂÎñÉϵÄÑ¡Ôñ×ÔÓÉÓëÉí¶Î×ÔÖ÷Ȩ¡£

½áºÏ¹ú³ÉÔ±¹úÂÅ´ÎÈ·ÈÏÁËÔÚ¸ßÉúÓýÂÊȺÌåÖÐÊØ»¤ÉúÖ³È¨ÊÆµÄ³ÁÒªÐÔ £¬Í¬Ê±Ò²Òâʶµ½È˶¡²»±äµÄ¼ÛÖµ¡£È»¶øÉдý½â¾öµÄÊÇ£º1994Ä꿪ÂÞ¹ú¼ÊÈ˶¡Óë·¢Õ¹´ó»áÈ·Á¢µÄ¸ÅÏë¿ò¼Ü £¬ÔÚµÍÉúÓýÂʵĺóתÐÍÉç»áÖÐÊÇ·ñÈÔÓµÓÐÏÖʵÒâ˼Óëʵ¼Ê¼ÛÖµ¡£

±¨Ãû·½Ê½£º

ɨº£±¨ÓÒϽǶþάÂë £¬±¨Ãû³É¹¦½«ÊÕµ½ÓʼþÈ·ÈÏÐÅ £¬½²×ùÆðͷǰ30·ÖÖÓÆ¾È·ÈÏÓʼþÈ볡

20251027-John½²×ùº£±¨.png

¡¾ÍøÕ¾µØÍ¼¡¿